Week of October 4–10, 2025 — Frontier's $41M BECCS Deal, Article 6 Expands, Issuances Surge But Prices Dip | VCM.fyi Weekly Intelligence

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• Identify your ideal buyers: Filter 40,000+ buyers by the exact types of credits they purchase — category, protocol, registry, vintage year, country, and even specific project proponents

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This week's most active buyers (Oct 4–10):

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• Project characteristics: Categories (agriculture, biochar, carbon-capture, energy-efficiency, forest, fuel-switching, ghg-management, land-use, renewable-energy), registries (Verra, Gold Standard, ACR, CAR, ART TREES), countries, protocols, proponent names, vintage years

• Transaction timing: Filter by specific date ranges to catch recent activity

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1. Market Data and Trends

Issuances & Retirements

Voluntary carbon credit issuances surged in September 2025, reaching the highest monthly level since late 2024. New issuances rebounded sharply — nearly doubling month-on-month by one estimate — even as retirements softened.

September retirements fell by over 1 million tonnes compared to August and were 1.3 million tonnes lower than September 2024. This indicates a growing surplus — a trend also reflected in 71% of credits issued since 2020 remaining unretired to date.

Key insight for developers: The market is experiencing supply growth outpacing demand. High-quality, differentiated projects with pre-purchase agreements are weathering this better than generic spot market credits.

Price Movements

An oversupply of credits has pressured prices, especially for nature-based offsets. The average price for nature-based removal credits dipped to around $13.30/mt in early October, down ~10% from the prior month.

By contrast, high-quality or CCP-labeled credits continue to command premiums. Top-tier credits (rated "A" or higher) average about $14–15/ton versus $3–4/ton for lower-quality projects. Engineered carbon removals are even pricier — often well above $100/ton — reflecting their higher costs and scarcity.

CORSIA-eligible credits trade at a premium: An index of Phase 1 CORSIA units climbed from ~$11 to ~$20/ton through 2024, and analysts foresee a further jump to $25–35/ton (or more) by 2027 amid anticipated supply crunches.

Liquidity & Exchange Signals

Trading activity remains modest but not absent. Xpansiv's CBL platform — which accounts for the bulk of spot VCM trading — saw intermittent large transactions. For example, a block of 39,414 U.S. landfill gas credits (vintage 2023, ACR registry, CCP-approved methodology) traded at $7.15/ton in a record deal.

This price significantly exceeded other recent trades (e.g. older hydro and REDD+ credits from Asia changing hands at $2–5/ton), highlighting how credit type and quality drive pricing.

Overall volumes on exchange remain thin relative to past highs, but pockets of demand (especially for higher-integrity credits and future delivery contracts) are providing some liquidity signals. Market participants note that many deals are now struck OTC or anonymously, as big buyers often choose not to publicly disclose purchases due to reputational concerns.

Removal vs. Avoidance Credit Split

There is an ongoing price and demand divergence between carbon removals and avoidance credits.

Durable removal credits (e.g. direct air capture, BECCS, biochar) attract strong forward demand and higher prices, supported by corporate net-zero pledges. In Q3 2025, commitments for engineered carbon removals reached toward 40 million tonnes in total.

Meanwhile, avoidance credits (e.g. from forestry and renewable energy projects) are abundant and cheap, often trading in the single digits per ton. The share of higher-quality removals remains small — under 1% of VCM volume by issuance — but is expected to grow.

For instance, Puro.earth (a removals-focused registry) has already seen record retirement volumes in 2025, surpassing last year's total by Q3 (indicating increased uptake of removals).

In short: High-integrity removals are scarce and expensive, while conventional avoidance credits face oversupply and deeply discounted prices.

2. Regulatory and Policy Updates

International Agreements (Article 6)

Progress continues on bilateral carbon trading pacts.

On October 6, Singapore signed its 10th Article 6 Implementation Agreement, this time with Mongolia, establishing a framework to generate and transfer credits between the two nations. Singapore has been a leader in such deals since its first agreement at COP28 in 2023, and the Mongolia pact is another step in advancing Paris Agreement Article 6 cooperation in Asia.

In Latin America, Chile authorised its first carbon project under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement, becoming the first country in the region to do so. Chile's government announced this approval on Oct 6, signaling intent to both sell and potentially buy internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) as its carbon market framework develops.

National Policies and Carbon Pricing

In the United States, a key subnational climate program got a legal green light — the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear a challenge to Washington State's cap-and-invest carbon market, leaving the program intact. This effectively upholds Washington's system (including its limited linkage with California's market) and provides regulatory certainty for allowance and offset trading under that scheme.

Meanwhile, Brazil is preparing a notable push on the global stage: The Brazilian government announced plans to propose a coalition for global carbon market integration at COP30 (hosted in Belém, Brazil later this year). The idea, led by Brazil's environment ministry, is to harmonise carbon pricing systems worldwide on a voluntary basis — potentially aligning voluntary market mechanisms with regulated markets.

Observers note Brazil is also moving toward a domestic carbon price; a law establishing a national carbon market was enacted earlier in 2025, and implementation rules (including possible linkage with the VCM) are under development.

Climate Diplomacy — IMO & CORSIA

A high-profile tussle is underway in international maritime negotiations. The US is reportedly attempting to block the IMO's adoption of a Net Zero Emissions Strategy for global shipping, needing to sway at least 15 countries to its side. This last-minute lobbying effort — revealed at the Carbon Forward conference in London — comes as the International Maritime Organization is set to formally adopt its net-zero framework this month.

A successful "flip" of enough countries could scupper the deal, which has implications for using carbon credits or fuels in shipping.

In aviation, attention remains on ICAO's CORSIA scheme: Experts at the UN and industry events noted that if the new Paris Agreement Article 6.4 crediting mechanism is approved for CORSIA, it could ease supply constraints for airlines. However, as of now, supply is tight — only a few million eligible credits exist — and airlines face steep offsetting costs post-2027. Forecasts suggest CORSIA credit prices could hit $25–60 by 2027 if supply doesn't expand, fueling calls for accelerated credit approvals and alternative compliance options.

Standard-Setting Bodies

The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) made a notable move this week, approving a new batch of methodologies for its Core Carbon Principles (CCP) label.

Announced on Oct 1, the ICVCM approved six additional carbon removal methodologies (e.g. for direct air capture, BECCS, etc.), as well as one improved forest management and one reforestation method. This expands the universe of projects eligible for the "high-integrity" CCP label.

However, supply remains limited — no new CCP-labeled credits were immediately issued from these methods, and to date only a few projects (mostly biochar and forestry) have received the label. A cookstove project developer speaking on Oct 9 expects to issue the first CCP-tagged cookstove credits by end of this month.

The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) and VCMI did not release major updates during the week, but both continue to influence corporate behavior. (Notably, the VCMI's Claims Code of Practice released earlier in 2025 is gradually being adopted by companies to frame their offset use, and the SBTi's carbon credit usage criteria remain a reference for "net-zero" aligned buyers.)

Other Policy News

Europe is keeping an eye on voluntary market integration too. EU officials hinted at linking the forthcoming Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF) with international credits under Article 6, potentially allowing some voluntary credits into EU compliance markets in the future.

And at the Chile Climate Week Carbon Forum, developing countries shared plans: The Dominican Republic announced it aims to pilot an ETS by 2027 (with possible use of offsets), and several West African nations declared intentions to create a harmonised regional carbon market to attract Article 6 investment.

These developments underscore that governments, especially in the Global South, are actively leveraging the VCM and Article 6 as tools for climate finance and cooperation.

3. Corporate Deal Flow and Project Developments

Landmark Offtake Deals

The most eye-catching deal of the week was a $41 million carbon credit offtake by the Frontier coalition of corporate buyers.

Frontier (a consortium including Stripe, Shopify, Meta, Google, and others) signed an agreement with Arbor, a BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) project developer, to purchase 116,000 tons of CO₂ removal credits to be delivered in 2028–2030. This averages to roughly $353/ton — reflecting the high cost of engineered removals.

The upfront capital will help fund Arbor's first commercial BECCS facility in Louisiana (scheduled to come online by 2028). This deal, announced Oct 9, builds on Frontier's string of large removal purchases (they also inked a $33 million enhanced weathering deal earlier in the year).

It signals continued corporate appetite for long-term removal supply, despite the price premium, as companies race to secure high-quality credits for their net-zero commitments.

Corporate Buyers & Projects

Beyond Frontier, many corporate purchases remain behind the scenes. Analysts noted at Carbon Forward Expo that many big buyers now transact anonymously or use "coded" language to avoid public scrutiny of their offset deals.

However, a few deals and investments were publicized:

In Brazil, a new venture called Conserve Brasil (a reforestation project developer) secured R$100 million (~$18 million) in financing from the national development bank BNDES to restore 2,750 hectares of degraded land using agroforestry by 2027. This funding, announced Oct 10, will support generation of future forest carbon credits and signals continued interest from development banks in the carbon project pipeline.

Also of note, South Pole, one of the largest carbon project developers, is reportedly undergoing a major restructuring with staff layoffs. The firm (widely known for developing REDD+ projects and corporate climate consulting) faced a difficult two years after a high-profile credits scandal and the departure of a co-founder, and it is now cutting costs to stabilize. This hints at the financial strain on some VCM players amid low prices and reputational challenges.

Removal Projects and Tech

The wave of investment in carbon removal startups continues. Aside from Arbor's BECCS project, other removal ventures reported milestones.

For example, Hamburg-based Novocarbo issued the first-ever biochar credits from an asphalt pilot project (a small but symbolic issuance showing new tech methodologies coming to market). And Climeworks and Heirloom (direct air capture firms) were rumored to be in advanced talks for additional offtake agreements after large deals in prior months.

On the corporate buyer side, more companies are exploring portfolio approaches to offsets — combining near-term avoidance credits with long-term removal purchases. Notably, Microsoft and Meta have multi-year deals for forest-carbon removals in the US (1.4 million credits from a Washington state IFM project), and Netflix recently signed a 15-year deal to fund reforestation on former farmlands (announced just prior to this week).

These illustrate how household-name firms are directly partnering with project developers to secure future credit supply.

Market Platforms and Innovation

On the transactional side, startups are emerging to facilitate carbon deals. A new carbon finance platform announced an RFP (request for proposals) to connect CORSIA-eligible and Article 6 projects with institutional investors for Q4 2025 funding.

Meanwhile, exchanges like Xpansiv are introducing products catering to quality-differentiated credits (e.g. separate contracts for removals, or CCP-labeled credit baskets once supply allows). Xpansiv's CBL reported that nature-based credits (especially those with co-benefits) are seeing increased block trading — for instance, project-specific REDD+ credits from Indonesia traded in bulk at ~$3–5/ton as buyers take advantage of low prices.

And on the MRV (monitoring, reporting, verification) front, October saw the launch of TraceCDR, a new digital tracking system linking MRV protocols to issued credits, aimed at improving transparency in the carbon removal market.

All told, the corporate segment of the VCM is characterized by caution on the buy side but also strategic investment: buyers are more selective and quiet, yet capital is flowing into projects (especially removals and high-integrity nature projects) via offtakes and innovative financing models.

What This Means for Project Developers

The market is bifurcating — and that creates opportunity:

1. Quality pays: The price spread between generic avoidance credits ($3–5/ton) and high-integrity removals ($100+/ton) has never been wider. If your project can achieve CCP certification or demonstrate true additionality, you're in a different market.

2. Pre-purchase is the new normal: Spot market prices are weak, but offtake agreements for future delivery (especially removals) are robust. Frontier's $353/ton BECCS deal shows buyers will pay premium prices — if you can de-risk delivery.

3. Buyer intelligence matters: With 71% of issued credits sitting unretired and buyers increasingly selective, knowing who buys what is critical. Use tools like the Buyers Directory to identify and target the right buyers before approaching them.

4. Article 6 is accelerating: Singapore's 10th bilateral agreement and Chile's first approved project signal that government-backed credit transfers are becoming real. If you're developing in a country pursuing Article 6, understand how this affects your credit eligibility and pricing.

5. Supply discipline is coming: Despite September's issuance surge, the oversupply is forcing registries and buyers to be more selective. Verra's Kariba cancellation last month and ICVCM's methodology approvals this week show the market is tightening standards.

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