Google's 200K Credit Amazon Deal, SBTi Net-Zero Draft Opens, EU Unlocks 5% Offset Path to 2040

1. Advances in Standards & Integrity

SBTi Updates Net-Zero Criteria: Removals and "BVCM" Get Recognition

The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) released a draft Corporate Net-Zero Standard (Version 2) for public consultation on November 6. This is a significant development for any company planning to use carbon credits as part of their climate strategy.

What's changing:

The new draft proposes significant changes in how companies can use carbon removals and "beyond value chain mitigation" (offsets) within science-based climate strategies. While direct emissions reductions remain the #1 priority, SBTi plans to introduce a recognition mechanism for companies that take voluntary action to neutralize ongoing emissions via high-quality offsets.

The goal is to uphold scientific integrity yet make net-zero targets more inclusive, actionable, and sector-sensitive — helping more businesses turn ambition into credible decarbonization plans.

Why this matters for project developers:

If adopted, this standard could unlock significant new demand from SBTi-aligned companies (currently 7,000+ globally). The key is that credits will need to be "high-quality" — expect buyers to increasingly filter for CCP-labeled credits, verified removals, and projects with robust additionality.

Public feedback is invited through early December to ensure the final standard is robust and workable for all.

💡 Track which buyers are already aligned with SBTi: Use the Buyers Directory to identify companies that are likely to increase their credit purchases under the new standard.

Integrity Council Endorses Verra Methodology

In a boost for quality standards, the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) approved an updated reforestation methodology under Verra's Verified Carbon Standard as meeting its Core Carbon Principles (CCPs).

Verra's improved Afforestation/Reforestation methodology (VM0047 v1.1) earned this high-integrity label, underscoring its scientific rigor. This approval is expected to drive vital finance to reforestation projects by giving buyers greater confidence that these credits genuinely remove carbon from the atmosphere.

At the same time, Verra concluded its two-year review of the Kariba REDD+ project, finding it had over-issued about 15.2 million credits due to lower-than-projected deforestation. Verra has implemented corrective actions and strengthened its methodologies — a difficult but necessary process that its CEO says will safeguard the market's future integrity.

These steps collectively illustrate how the voluntary market is "growing up," with tighter standards and oversight to ensure credibility.

For developers: If you're running an A/R project, the CCP approval of VM0047 v1.1 is your green light for premium pricing. Buyers are actively seeking CCP-labeled forest credits.

New High-Integrity Initiatives

Efforts to restore trust in carbon markets also saw collaborative frameworks emerge. In early November, a government-backed Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets published shared principles for the high-integrity use of carbon credits by businesses.

The framework — launched by a group of countries and NGOs ahead of COP30 — guides companies on purchasing and using offsets in a way that genuinely complements emissions reductions. This aligns with the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity (VCMI) initiative's work on claims guidance, and reflects a broader trend: stakeholders coalescing around common standards for quality and transparency in the voluntary market.

2. Policy & Regulatory Updates

UN Eases Offset "Permanence" Rules

In mid-October, the UN body overseeing the Paris Agreement's new carbon market (Article 6.4) struck a compromise on carbon credit permanence requirements.

The backstory: Initial proposals had called for effectively indefinite monitoring of carbon storage (which many feared would exclude nature-based projects entirely).

The outcome: Instead, the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body approved a more flexible, risk-based standard. The final rules do not require endless monitoring or fixed 100-year thresholds; projects will be handled case-by-case with tools like buffer pools and third-party guarantees to manage reversal risk.

Industry groups like IETA praised this as a "pragmatic middle ground" that keeps nature-based solutions in the market with safeguards. However, some climate NGOs argue the compromise undermines scientific rigor, since claiming short-lived forest carbon storage can offset fossil CO₂ (which stays in the atmosphere for millennia) remains problematic.

This debate highlights the challenge of balancing environmental integrity with the practicality of including forests and land-use projects in global carbon trading.

Developer impact: Nature-based projects can now participate in Article 6.4 markets without prohibitive monitoring requirements. Expect this to increase competition but also open new buyer channels (governments using Article 6 for NDCs).

Brazil Bridges Voluntary and Compliance Markets

As host of the upcoming COP30, Brazil has ramped up carbon market policy. A decree signed in October 2025 will allow Brazilian emission-reduction projects to seek international certification of their credits for use in emissions trading.

In other words, voluntary projects in Brazil (for example, those following standards like Verra or Gold Standard) could be recognized and utilized under regulated carbon markets or future Article 6 transactions.

This decree follows Brazil's 2024 law establishing a national carbon market, and signals the country's intent to integrate high-quality voluntary credits into its climate strategy. Observers note that Brazil — branding COP30 as the "Forest COP" — is positioning itself as a leader in market-based climate solutions, provided standards and transparency are maintained.

For Brazilian project developers: This could be transformational. Your credits may soon be eligible for both voluntary buyers AND compliance markets. Consider dual certification strategies.

Track Brazilian projects: See which projects are already generating credits in Brazil and which buyers are active there using our project filters.

EU Climate Target Includes Offsets

In Europe, negotiators reached a hard-fought deal on a 2040 emissions target — with a notable role for carbon credits.

EU member states agreed on a 90% GHG reduction by 2040, but to placate concerns from some countries about economic impacts, the deal allows up to 5% of the target to be met via international carbon credits (with a possible additional 5% in "emergency" circumstances).

This is higher than the 3% offset usage the European Commission initially proposed. The compromise means the EU could use Paris Agreement Article 6 credits from 2036 onward for a slice of its reductions, effectively requiring 85% domestic cuts and 5% from global projects.

The agreement also delays the expansion of the EU ETS to buildings and road transport (ETS2) by one year (now starting in 2028).

Market implications:

While some climate advocates worry this reliance on offsets could weaken ambition, the inclusion of offsets reflects political trade-offs but could also pour billions into carbon markets globally if the EU taps overseas credits to help hit its 2040 goal. Analysts estimate tens of billions of euros in demand could result.

For developers: The EU will likely prioritize Article 6 credits and CCP-labeled projects. If you're developing in regions with Article 6 agreements with the EU (or planning to), this is massive new demand coming online in 2036.

3. Corporate Deals & Market Activity

Google's Major Forest Carbon Deal: 200K Tonnes from Amazon Reforestation

Big tech firms are stepping up procurement of high-quality carbon removals, and this week brought the biggest deal yet from Google.

Google announced its largest carbon credit purchase to date — a deal to fund Amazon rainforest reforestation with Brazilian startup Mombak, expected to offset 200,000 metric tons of CO₂. This quadruples the size of Google's pilot forestry offtake from last year.

Why this deal matters:

Notably, the agreement focuses on reforestation (planting new forests) rather than avoided deforestation. Google has shunned traditional REDD+ credits — which pay to prevent deforestation — due to concerns over fraud and permanence (some REDD+ projects in Brazil were tied to alleged illegal logging).

Mombak's model of converting degraded pastureland "back into jungle" and carefully verifying carbon removal is seen as far more credible, exemplifying a broader "flight to quality" in the voluntary market.

In fact, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and others formed the Symbiosis Coalition to source nature-based offsets that meet rigorous standards for carbon accounting, long-term stewardship, and co-benefits for communities/biodiversity. Of 185 projects reviewed by the coalition, Mombak's reforestation project is the first to qualify under its strict criteria.

The pricing premium:

Mombak's credits reportedly fetch 10× the price of typical avoided deforestation units — a stunning premium that reflects the quality gap in the market.

The Google–Mombak deal, timed just before COP30 in Brazil, also shines a spotlight on nature-based removals as a key part of corporate net-zero efforts.

💡 See what else Google is buying: Check Google's full credit purchase history in the Buyers Directory to understand their buying patterns — registry preferences, vintage years, transaction volumes, and project types.

💡 Benchmark your project: If you're developing reforestation or A/R projects, see how your project category compares in pricing and demand using our forest project filters.

Investments in Carbon Removal Projects: IKEA's €100M Forest Restoration

Beyond buying credits, companies are directly investing in carbon removal projects.

IKEA's parent group launched a forest restoration venture in Brazil as part of its €100 million commitment to carbon removal. In partnership with BTG Pactual's Timberland Investment Group, IKEA will reforest ~4,000 hectares of degraded Atlantic Forest land, half of which will be restored to native forest and half planted as sustainably managed timber plantations.

The project aims to both sequester carbon and generate economic opportunities (through responsible timber production) for local communities. IKEA plans to measure and independently verify carbon uptake, biodiversity, water, and social impacts throughout the project, using it as a test-bed for scalable models that could be expanded.

Corporate moves like this indicate that demand for removals is spurring new projects and finance, from natural climate solutions to tech-based approaches. Indeed, market reports show rising interest in durable carbon removal — including direct air capture and enhanced mineralization — with buyers looking to lock in offtake deals early.

💡 Track who's investing beyond credits: Use the Buyers Directory to see which companies have the highest transaction volumes — these are often the ones also making direct investments in projects.

4. Market Trends & Outlook

The "Quality Premium" is Real — and Growing

Overall, the period since mid-October has seen the voluntary carbon market inch toward higher integrity even amid ongoing challenges.

Prices for high-grade credits (like carbon removals or tightly verified nature projects) remain significantly higher than for older, lower-quality credits — a trend reflecting the "quality premium" that buyers like Google are willing to pay.

Mombak's 10× premium over typical REDD+ credits is the most dramatic example, but it's not an outlier. CCP-labeled credits, engineered removals (DAC, biochar, enhanced weathering), and reforestation projects with strong MRV are all commanding premiums of 200-500% over generic avoidance credits.

At the same time, volumes of transactions have been modest, as many buyers wait for clearer rules (for instance, how credits will fit into disclosure regulations or SBTi targets).

Confidence is Rebuilding

The launch of new principles and coalitions suggests a push to rebuild confidence and demand: if companies can trust that a credit is doing what it claims, they are more likely to re-engage in the market.

Policy signals are mixed — the EU embracing some offsets, the UN allowing nature-based credits under Article 6.4, but also the scrutiny that led to tightening of standards like FLAG (Forestry, Land and Agriculture) by SBTi.

All told, the past few weeks brought critical building blocks for a more credible and effective voluntary carbon market, from rulebooks to real-world projects. Stakeholders are cautiously optimistic that these developments will "move the needle" in scaling climate impact, just as the world's climate community gathers in Belém for COP30.

What This Means for Project Developers

Five strategic takeaways from this week:

1. SBTi V2 opens new demand channels — But only for high-quality credits. If your project isn't CCP-labeled or moving in that direction, you'll be locked out of this buyer segment. Start the certification process now.

2. Brazilian projects have dual-market opportunity — The new decree means Brazilian credits could serve both voluntary and compliance buyers. Consider dual-certification strategies (Verra + Article 6 authorization).

3. Reforestation >> REDD+ in buyer preference — Google's explicit rejection of REDD+ in favor of reforestation signals where corporate buyers are heading. If you're developing avoided deforestation projects, expect continued price pressure unless you have exceptional co-benefits and MRV.

4. EU demand coming in 2036 — The 5% (potentially 10%) offset allowance represents tens of billions of euros in future demand. Position your project for Article 6 eligibility now if you want to capture this.

5. Direct corporate investment is rising — IKEA's €100M commitment and similar moves show buyers are moving upstream into project development. If you're seeking financing, consider approaching corporate buyers directly for equity/offtake hybrid deals.

💡 Want to discuss how these trends affect your specific project? Schedule a 30-min consultation with our team to get strategic guidance on positioning your credits for premium buyers.

📊 This Week in Numbers

Want to explore the data behind these stories?

• 200,000 mt CO₂ — Google's Mombak deal size (see Google's full buying history)

• 10× — Price premium for high-quality reforestation vs. REDD+ credits

• 15.2M credits — Kariba over-issuance corrected by Verra

• 5-10% — EU's 2040 offset allowance (from 2036)

• 7,000+ companies — Aligned with SBTi, potential new buyers under V2

• €100M — IKEA's forest restoration commitment

Explore real-time market data on app.vcm.fyi →

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