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VCM Intel: Shell's 4M mt Retirement
VCM.fyi Newsletter - Week of July 14, 2025
VCM.fyi team
July 15, 2025
The Big Story: Shell's Massive 4M mt CO2e Retirement
In a significant market move, Shell has retired 4 million metric tons of CO2e, purchasing these credits at an average price of $12.50 per metric ton. This transaction underscores a robust demand for high-quality carbon credits in the volatile carbon market.
Key Market Shifts
Shell retired 4M mt of CO2e at $12.50/mt, signaling strong market demand.
REDD+ credits saw a price adjustment of +3% MoM, now priced at $10.20/mt.
Tech CDR projects experienced a -2% price shift MoM, currently at $250/mt.
European carbon regulations have tightened, impacting credit prices by approximately -$5/mt.
💼 Deal Flow & Transactions
Major Transactions This Week
Shell's retirement of 4M mt at $12.50/mt from a REDD+ project highlights the week's significant carbon credit transactions.
Shell bought 4M mt at $12.50 from Project A
Top Transactions by Volume
Buyer | Volume (MT) | Price/MT | Project Type |
|---|---|---|---|
Shell | 4M | $12.50 | REDD+ |
📊 Market Pricing & Supply Dynamics
Price Movements by Project Type
This week, REDD+ credits adjusted upward by 3%, reaching $10.20/mt, while Tech CDR credits saw a slight decline.
REDD+: $10.20/mt (±3% MoM)
Tech CDR: $250/mt (±2% MoM)
⚖️ Policy & Regulatory Updates
Impacts on Project Economics
Recent tightening of European carbon regulations could decrease credit prices by around $5/mt, affecting project bottom lines.
EU's new carbon tax = -$5/credit impact
💰 Investment & Financing
Capital Flows
Significant capital is flowing into the carbon credit market, with Fund X raising $50M targeted at forestry-based projects.
Fund X raised $50M for forestry projects
🎯 Developer Action Items
This Week's Opportunities
Developers should consider applying for new funding available for Tech CDR projects and adjust strategies based on the latest price movements.
Apply for Tech CDR funding by December 15
Adjust sales strategy to leverage REDD+ price increase
Key Takeaways
Shell's large-scale retirement of 4M mt at $12.50/mt highlights a robust demand for REDD+ credits, with significant implications for market dynamics.
Winners:
Developers with REDD+ projects (+3% price)
Investors in Tech CDR despite a slight price dip
Action Required:
Consider applying for new Tech CDR funding
Adjust project focus in response to EU regulatory changes
The Bottom Line:
Market dynamics favor high-quality, verifiable credits as regulations tighten and prices adjust.