Voluntary Carbon Market Weekly — Week 4-5, 2026 Extended Edition (Jan 18–29, 2026)

386 news signals analyzed across 175 projects. This brief highlights what matters for project developers, brokers, and institutional buyers.

The past two weeks delivered strong bullish signals across the voluntary carbon market: China's CEA hits all-time highat RMB 104.5 ($14.60/ton), TD Bank closes 10-year, 44,000-tonne CDR offtake with Charm Industrial, Gold Standard final issuances create scarcity for top-rated Tier 1 projects, and Article 6 frameworks advance in Zambia, Vietnam, and Namibia.

🔥 Lead Story: TD Bank Closes Landmark $44M Carbon Removal Deal

Project: Charm Industrial (Bio-oil & Biochar)

Category: Major Deals

TD Bank has announced a 10-year offtake agreement to purchase 44,000 tonnes of carbon removal from Charm Industrial, covering both bio-oil and biochar sequestration pathways.

Why It Matters for Developers:

• Long-term commitment from a major financial institution validates the bankability of engineered CDR

• Signals institutional appetite for multi-pathway removal strategies

• Sets precedent for decade-long offtake structures in the removal space

Strategic Implications:

• CDR developers: Long-term corporate commitments are achievable — structure your offtakes accordingly

• Buyers: Financial institutions moving first on CDR positions; early movers securing supply

• Intermediaries: Premium pricing justified for projects with strong proponent backing

🌍 Market Signal: China CEA Hits All-Time High at $14.60/ton

Project: VCS4231

Category: Price Discovery

China Emissions Allowance (CEA) prices reached an all-time high of RMB 104.5 ($14.60/ton), with forecasts predicting the market could grow 33-fold by 2030 to RMB 600 billion.

Market Dynamics:

• High compliance prices in China pull up the floor for voluntary credits (VCUs and CCERs)

• Demand for cheaper offsets increases as compliance costs rise

• CCER methodology expansion now includes low-concentration coal mine gas and methane utilization

Risk Note: Creates "double counting" concerns for VCS-only projects. Buyers now require clarity on credit exclusivity.

💼 Corporate Offtakes: Big Names Securing Supply

Wakefield Biochar — Swiss Re, Booking.com, Block

• Project: PURO-654470

• Confirms strong institutional demand for certified biochar removals from tier-1 corporates

Shell — Continued Retirement Activity

• Project: VCS2478 (Titas Gas, Bangladesh)

• Volume: 2,000 credits (Vintage 2020) + 34,800 credits (Vintage 2018)

• Signal: Major oil & gas continuing to validate gas leak prevention methodology

IFFCO Rahma — Carbon-Neutral Olive Oil

• Project: GLD1078 (Aqua Clara Water Filters, Kenya)

• Volume: 13,226 tCO2e retired via Climate Impact Partners

• Signal: FMCG sector adopting project-specific offset branding

Harvest & Mill — Domestic Forest Offsets

• Project: CAR1098 (Garcia River Forest)

• Use case: 100% carbon-neutral clothing certification

• Signal: Retail sector demand steady for US domestic forest credits

Grab Malaysia — WCS Partnership

• Project: VCS1650 (Keo Seima REDD+, Cambodia)

• Signal: Long-term corporate commitment from regional tech platforms

📊 Price Discovery: Premium Segments Hold Strong

Key Price Signal: Quality divergence accelerating — A-AAA rated credits at $14.80/t vs low-quality at $3.50/t. The spread is widening.

⚡ Supply Alert: GS1239 Final Issuance Creates Scarcity

Projects: GLD1701, GLD1702, GLD1704, GLD1730, GLD1745, GLD2567, GLD2570, GLD2574, GLD2575, GLD2580, GLD3593

Category: Operational / Price Signals

The Sichuan Rural Poor-Household Biogas Development Programme (GS1239) has announced its 13th and final issuance of 139,226 Gold Standard VERs for vintages 2024/2025. This marks the end of the crediting period for one of the market's highest-rated projects (Tier 1 GHG + 4+ SDG).

Why It Matters:

Action Items:

• Projects nearing end of crediting period should emphasize scarcity in sales narratives

• Buyers: Secure positions in high-rated project inventories before final issuance price uplift

• Traders: Monitor secondary market for GS1239-linked credits

🌐 Regulatory Developments: Article 6 Accelerates

Zambia-Switzerland Bilateral Agreement (Article 6.2)

• Projects like VCS1532 now have a path to transition credits into Article 6.2 with Corresponding Adjustments

• High-integrity sovereign framework established for international transfers

Namibia Carbon Markets Policy Finalized

• Projects like VCS1915 can navigate Article 6 within clear legal framework

• National regulatory foundation now operational

Vietnam Carbon Exchange Framework (Decree 29/2026)

• Formal legal architecture for domestic carbon exchange

• GLD1890 initiated 3rd crediting period renewal under GS4GG

Rwanda Fee Exemption

• REMA clarified new carbon market fees apply only to new projects

• Existing projects (e.g., GLD11014) protected from new levies

Quebec Carbon Market Phase-Out Plan

• Potential phase-out of traditional offsets by 2031

• Bullish for high-durability removals in "VCM 2.0" transition

India CCTS Launch

• Expected debut price: ~$10/tCO2e

• Strong price floor for tech-based and social co-benefit projects

⚠️ Integrity Signals

Positive:

• Verra expanded project statuses for late verifications and denied review requests — increased transparency

• Amazon AB 1305 compliance disclosure listed ACR1149 — Tier-1 corporate validation

• BioCarbon Partners (Zambia) formalized NERPA Agreement for VCS1202

Risk Flags:

• VCS1532 (COMACO) — Community grievances in Eastern Zambia over benefit-sharing transparency

• VCS1753 — CCP Rejection due to ACM0002 methodology exclusion; spot price ~$1.00/credit

🌍 Social Impact: Bondhu Chula Featured Nationally

Projects: GLD4374, GLD4380, GLD11774, GLD11775, GLD11838, GLD11841, GLD11845

Category: Social/Community

Multiple national media features in Bangladesh highlighted the Bondhu Chula cookstove program:

• 1.6 million stoves distributed

• 58% fuel use reduction

• 100% female beneficiary profile

Impact Award: VCS4457 (Tramontana ICS-01) named "Impact Project of the Year" — 125,000 families reached in India.

📈 This Week by the Numbers

• 386 forensic findings across 175 projects

• Top categories: Operational (24%), Market/Offtake (24%), Regulatory (15%), Integrity (14%)

• Bullish signals: 284 (74% of total)

• Regional Focus: High activity in China (compliance spillover), Bangladesh (cookstoves), Zambia/Vietnam/Namibia (Article 6)

🎯 Action Items

For Project Developers:

1. Final issuance timing — Projects nearing end of crediting period should emphasize scarcity

2. Article 6 readiness — Jurisdictional frameworks advancing rapidly; prepare for LoA opportunities

3. MRV investment — SOC and tech-based projects face scrutiny; robust MRV justifies premiums

4. Social impact documentation — SDG alignment driving 2-3x premiums over baseline credits

For Brokers & Traders:

1. African cookstove with LoA — Premium segment ($20-35/t) vs standard voluntary ($6.50-8.50)

2. Industrial gas stability — HFC credits maintaining $14-19 floor despite NBS volatility

3. China compliance spillover — CEA at $14.60 creates floor pressure on voluntary markets

4. CDR forward contracts — Long-term offtakes stabilizing at $120/t for 2026 delivery

For Institutional Buyers:

1. Quality divergence accelerating — A-AAA rated credits at $14.80 vs low-quality at $3.50

2. AB 1305 compliance — California disclosure requirements now in effect

3. CORSIA eligibility — Limited high-quality supply; secure positions early

Stay ahead of market-moving intelligence.

• Full Project Intelligence: app.vcm.fyi — Track real-time forensic news, pricing, and project data

• Subscribe: news.vcm.fyi — Get weekly analysis delivered to your inbox

• Book a Demo: Schedule a 30-minute walkthrough to see how VCM.fyi accelerates your deal flow

VCM.fyi provides strategic intelligence for carbon market participants. This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.