- VCM.FYI intel
- Posts
- Guyana's 9M Credit CORSIA Shock, KOKO Networks Collapses, India Launches Carbon Market, Tech Giants Lock Nature Offtakes
Guyana's 9M Credit CORSIA Shock, KOKO Networks Collapses, India Launches Carbon Market, Tech Giants Lock Nature Offtakes
Feb 7–13, 2026 | 157 project findings across 144 projects + 753 country policy findings across 133 countries
VCM.fyi team
February 13, 2026
op Stories This Week
1. Guyana Jurisdictional Supply Shocks CORSIA Market
Project: ART102 | Category: Price Signals
Guyana's jurisdictional REDD+ program significantly expanded the CORSIA-eligible supply this week with the issuance of 9.09 million vintage 2023 credits. This massive influx caused a visible dip in spot prices. Simultaneously, Hestian's Malawi Biomass projects (GLD11931, GLD11904, GLD11915) also gained eligibility, further driving CORSIA Phase 1 prices down toward the $18.30–$21.25/tCO2e range. Traders should prepare for continued downward pressure as these large-scale jurisdictional and cookstove volumes are absorbed.
2. Microsoft and Apple Cement Long-Term Nature-Based Offtakes
Tech giants are aggressively securing high-integrity nature-based supply. Microsoft committed to a landmark 2-million-tonne offtake with the Ugandan Smallholder Project (VCS4475) through 2035, while Indigo U.S. (CAR1459) maintained a $40 price floor via its existing Microsoft deal. Meanwhile, Apple's Restore Fund announced a strategic investment and offtake partnership for the Gualala River Forest (CAR660), signaling that high-quality, domestic sequestration remains a priority for blue-chip corporate balance sheets.
3. Regulatory Denial Triggers Collapse of KOKO Networks
In a major blow to the clean cooking sector, KOKO Networks has entered administration after the Kenyan government denied vital Article 6 regulatory approvals. Authorities cited concerns over market monopoly and poor carbon accounting ratings. This collapse highlights a growing sovereign risk: projects previously considered "market darlings" are now vulnerable to shifting national carbon frameworks and more stringent host-country oversight.
4. Integrity Strains: Kariba Deadlock and Brazilian Fraud Scandals
The "flight to quality" is being accelerated by ongoing legal and registry disputes. Kariba (VCS902) remains in a legal deadlock with Verra over a $35 million compensation demand for 15.2 million over-issued credits, a primary driver of global buyer hesitancy. In Brazil, the "Operation Greenwashing" scandal deepened as the judiciary suspended asset auctions for VCS1654, while offtaker GOL Airlines faces greenwashing litigation for its use of the project's credits.
5. Massive CARB Update De-risks US Compliance Portfolios
On February 10, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) issued a sweeping regulatory update affecting dozens of projects. The agency issued hundreds of thousands of new compliance credits (notably 321,388 to ACR761) and shortened invalidation periods to three years (CCO-3 status) for a large cohort of IFM, ODS, and Mine Methane projects. This de-risking event significantly improves liquidity and lowers the long-term liability profile for compliance buyers in the WCI market.
6. CDR Sector Scales via Aviation-Focused Offtakes and Strategic Funding
Projects: PURO-432524, PURO-816220, PURO-442197 | Category: Major Deals
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is moving from niche pilots to structural corporate procurement. Exomad Green (PURO-432524) secured a 105,000-tonne offtake for the aviation sector, while Truecoco Ghana (PURO-816220) locked in a 90,000-tonne deal with Climeworks. Additionally, Varaha ClimateAg (PURO-442197) raised $45 million to scale Enhanced Rock Weathering in India, showcasing robust investor appetite for durable removals.
Country Policy Monitor
753 findings scanned across 133 countries this week. Here are the most significant regulatory shifts.
🇮🇳 India Launches Carbon Market — Largest New Entrant Since EU ETS
India officially operationalized the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), covering 490 entities across 9 sectors. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency published the first-ever draft Project Design Document under the CCTS offset mechanism (Kosher Biogas Program). Meanwhile, the Union Budget 2026 allocated $2.2 billion for CCUS — explicitly to mitigate EU CBAM exposure on steel and cement exports. India also signed an FTA with the EU that includes carbon intensity-linked trade concessions ("Green Steel Standard").
Impact: Bullish for Indian project developers; creates a massive new domestic demand sink.
🇰🇪 Kenya's KOKO Fallout Reshapes East African Carbon Policy
Beyond the project-level collapse (Story 3 above), Kenya's refusal to issue Letters of Authorization signals a new "export quota logic" — the government is reserving carbon assets for NDC compliance rather than allowing unlimited international sales. In contrast, competitor M-Gas (Safaricom-backed) secured a preliminary LoA, suggesting the government is picking winners. Kenya also signed bilateral Article 6.2 agreements with Switzerland and Sweden, and is advancing a national carbon registry with GIZ support.
Impact: Sovereign risk repricing across East Africa; project developers need host-country relationships, not just registry approvals.
🇺🇸 US Regulatory Crosscurrents: 45Z Credits, Paris Withdrawal, and EPA Rollback
The US presented a contradictory policy landscape this week. The Treasury proposed Section 45Z regulations linking SAF tax credits to CORSIA methodologies — a major demand driver for aviation offsets. But the Trump administration also formalized the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and is moving to rescind the EPA's endangerment finding. Washington State is progressing toward linkage with the California-Quebec market, while Utah is considering taxing in-state carbon offset projects. The PROVE IT Act was signed into law, mandating DOE studies on US manufacturing emissions intensity vs. global peers.
Impact: Mixed — compliance demand growing at state level, federal regulatory basis eroding.
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan Opens Carbon Market with 80/20 Export-Retention Rule
President Mirziyoyev signed a landmark decree establishing Uzbekistan's carbon market framework. The rule allows 80% of credits to be exported internationally while mandating 20% domestic retention for NDC fulfillment. A national carbon registry is being established, and the government now requires Ministry approval for all VCM project licensing. Uzbekistan also launched digital CBAM compliance infrastructure with IFC/SGS support.
Impact: New supply source for Article 6 buyers; clear, investable rules.
🇿🇦 South Africa Proposes Carbon Tax Suspension Amid Tariff Crisis
Electricity Minister Ramokgopa is developing a formal proposal to pause South Africa's carbon tax to offset a proposed 36% Eskom tariff hike. Separately, National Treasury proposed reclassifying carbon credits as unlisted securities under the Financial Markets Act — a move toward institutional-grade carbon trading. The government confirmed that Phase 2 of the carbon tax (starting 2026) will require 100% domestic credits for compliance.
Impact: Domestic-only restriction is bullish for SA project developers; tax suspension creates demand uncertainty.
🇧🇷 Brazil Advances SBCE Regulated Market Ahead of COP30
Brazil designated its DNA for Article 6.4 and submitted participation requirements to the UNFCCC. Working groups are finalizing the SBCE (Brazilian ETS) regulations targeting 2026 registry launch and 2030 full operation. A court restored the RenovaBio decarbonization framework after legal challenges, stabilizing the existing CBIO credit market.
Impact: Large future compliance market taking shape; developers should position now.
🇹🇷 Turkiye Prepares National ETS and COP31 Presidency
Turkiye confirmed its national ETS pilot will launch in 2026 and appointed a COP31 High-Level Champion ahead of hosting in Antalya. The country finalized a 2GW solar agreement with Saudi Arabia (ACWA Power) with Article 6 potential.
Impact: COP31 host effect likely to accelerate Turkiye's carbon market development.
Export Restriction Tracker
Country | Change | Details |
|---|---|---|
🇰🇪 Kenya | De facto export quota | Refused LoAs for large-scale projects to preserve NDC headroom |
🇸🇳 Senegal | Domestic retention mandate | Mandatory share of credits must be retained for national reporting |
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 80/20 rule | 80% exportable, 20% domestic retention for NDC |
🇿🇦 South Africa | Domestic-only compliance | Phase 2 carbon tax requires 100% domestic credits |
🇮🇱 Israel | 15% retention proposed | 2026 Economic Arrangements Bill proposes 15% domestic retention |
🇫🇮 Finland | Advisory recommendation | Climate advisors recommend excluding intl credits from EU carbon market |
Quick Hits
ART102: Massive 9.09M credit issuance for Guyana jurisdictional project drags down spot prices.
VCS934: DRC formalizes 2026 carbon tax plans; credits currently trading at a $0.80 floor.
ACR1015: Achieves ICVCM Core Carbon Principles (CCP) label, signaling top-tier integrity for NativState forest credits.
GLD11331: Circle Gas distances itself from Koko Networks collapse, securing $27M offtake and Kenyan government approval.
VCS4268: Becomes the first North American project to receive FSC Verified Impact status for Biodiversity.
GLD6393: Nepal Biogas Support Program faces scrutiny following reports of widespread digester failures.
PURO-631817: Orca DACS plant methodology adopted as European Commission standard for high-integrity removals.
CAR1645: High-risk alert for Ejido Talayotes in Mexico following reports of illegal logging and encroaching forest fires.
New Zealand is developing a domestic VCM standard targeting ICVCM accreditation, while the government asked the Climate Change Commission to advise on reviving ETS prices.
ICAO opened the 2026 TAB assessment cycle (Feb 9 – Mar 9) for programs seeking CORSIA Phase 2 eligibility (2027-2029).
This Week by the Numbers
157 project findings across 144 projects | 753 country policy findings across 133 countries | 9 countries with export restriction changes detected
Top project categories:
Regulatory/Compliance (US): 82 projects de-risked or issued credits by CARB
CORSIA/Article 6 Transitions: 12 projects impacting international price signals
Insolvency/Integrity Risks: 5 projects facing terminal or severe operational threats
Top policy categories:
CORSIA: 237 findings — Phase 1 supply arriving, Phase 2 assessment cycle opens
VCM Regulatory: 232 findings — India CCTS, Turkiye ETS, Uzbekistan framework
Article 6: 151 findings — Brazil DNA, Kenya LoA denials, bilateral agreements
ETS/Carbon Tax: 124 findings — US 45Z, NZ ETS revival, South Africa suspension
Full project intelligence available on VCM.fyi. Sign up for detailed weekly diffs on prices, regulations, market offtakes, country policy alerts, and more.