February 27, 2026 — First CCP-Labeled Cookstove Credits, Kenyan Court Halts Chyulu Hills, Climeworks Reveals DAC Performance Gap, Italy Demands EU ETS Suspension, India Launches Carbon Market

Top Stories This Week

1. Market Milestone: ICVCM Issues First CCP Labels for Clean Cooking — CORSIA Eligibility Follows

Projects: VCS4150, VCS2749, VCS3699 | Category: Regulatory / Price Signals

The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) has officially applied the first Core Carbon Principles (CCP) labels to clean cooking sector credits — a watershed for the household device category that has long suffered from credibility questions. Simultaneously, DelAgua secured CORSIA Phase 1 eligibility tags for over 4.5 million credits from its Rwandan cooking projects, including VCS4150. The dual CCP + CORSIA designation creates a new pricing tier: these credits now serve both voluntary and compliance demand from aviation, establishing a clear floor price above non-labeled cookstove credits. For traders, this is the single most important supply-side event of Q1.

2. Kenyan High Court Halts Northern Kenya Grassland Carbon Project

Project: VCS1468 | Category: Integrity / Regulatory

The Kenyan High Court has ruled the operations of the Northern Kenya Grassland Carbon Project (NRT) unconstitutional within the Biliqo Bulesa and other key conservancies, ordering the immediate removal of NRT project rangers. The ruling permanently enjoins the project proponent from operating in these areas, effectively invalidating the legal basis for roughly 20% of the project's credit generation. For institutional buyers, this is a Tier-1 risk signal that compounds the broader regulatory tightening in Kenya u2014 where the National Carbon Registry (KNCR) launched just last week partly in response to governance failures at this project.

3. Removal Reality Check: Climeworks Reports 76% Performance Gap at Orca

Project: PURO-631817 | Category: Performance Risk

Climeworks leadership revealed that the flagship Orca Direct Air Capture plant in Iceland delivered only 953 tonnes of removals against its 4,000-tonne annual design target — a 76% shortfall. While the larger Mammoth facility is ramping and expected to improve economics, this disclosure forces a market reckoning: DAC-based Carbon Removal Certificates (CORCs) remain severely supply-constrained, which paradoxically tightens the market for verified removals and supports premium pricing in the $600–1,000/tonne range. Buyers with forward offtake agreements should stress-test delivery schedules.

4. EU ETS in Crisis: Italy Demands Suspension as EUA Prices Crash 25%

Countries: Italy, Germany, Czechia | Category: ETS / Carbon Tax

In the most significant threat to European carbon pricing since its inception, Italy formally requested an emergency suspension of the EU ETS, citing unbearable costs for gas-fired power generators. EU Allowance prices have crashed 25% from their 2025 highs, and a 13-nation coalition is forming around demands for reform. Germany's Chancellor has suggested potential postponement, while Czechia proposed capping carbon prices and delaying expansion to new sectors until 2030.

5. India Officially Launches Carbon Credit Trading Scheme — 490 Entities, Nine Sectors

Category: Regulatory / Article 6

The Government of India has officially notified the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) framework, designating Grid Controller of India as the National Carbon Registry. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) confirmed the compliance trading scheme will be operational by October 2026, with 490 entities across nine sectors — including petroleum refineries, petrochemicals, textiles, and secondary aluminum — now subject to emission intensity targets. India also published its first draft Project Design Document for the offset mechanism and signed collaboration agreements with Germany on emission trading systems. This is the largest new compliance market to launch in 2026.

6. Nepal Biogas: 54% Operational Failure Rate Exposed

Project: GLD10811 | Category: Integrity Concerns

A Kathmandu University investigation into the Biogas Support Program – Nepal has identified a 54% operational failure rate across installations. This finding challenges the underlying additionality and emission reduction claims of the project's historical issuances. With Nepal simultaneously enacting new carbon trade regulations — including 5% domestic credit retention and a 10% revenue tax — the regulatory environment is tightening around projects with questionable field performance.

7. DRC and Zimbabwe Operationalize National Carbon Registries

Projects: VCS934, GLD12875 | Category: Regulatory

The Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe both formally operationalized their National Carbon Credit Registries this week. Zimbabwe granted its first Article 6.2 authorizations to safe water projects (GLD12875), with over 1 million credits authorized through 2035. Meanwhile, the DRC established a 96,600-tonne annual credit cap with 10% retained for state control. This wave of sovereign infrastructure signals the end of unregulated bilateral deals in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Country Policy Monitor

774 findings scanned across 140 countries this week. Here are the most significant regulatory shifts.

🇨🇳 China Mandates Carbon Reporting for Six New Industrial Sectors

China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) issued guidance requiring emitters in petrochemicals, chemicals, flat glass, copper smelting, papermaking, and civil aviation to submit carbon data — a prerequisite for ETS inclusion starting 2027. The national ETS also transitioned to the CEA-2025 vintage, and regulatory guidance confirmed a shift from intensity-based targets to absolute emission caps by 2027.

🇧🇷 Brazil Signs Article 6.2 Agreements with Singapore and Switzerland

Brazil formalized bilateral Article 6.2 agreements with Singapore and Switzerland for ITMO trading. These agreements create one of the most investable corridors for nature-based credits globally, given Brazil's massive REDD+ and ARR project inventory.

🇺🇸 United States: Virginia Rejoins RGGI; California Auction Clears at Floor

Virginia Governor Spanberger signed immediate RGGI reentry into the state budget, reversing the 2023 withdrawal. Meanwhile, the California-Quebec Q1 auction cleared at the 2026 price floor of $27.94, with advance 2029 vintage auctions showing weak demand. Washington's APCR auction cleared at $60.43. Microsoft signed a 1.8M-credit CDR offtake for Sierra Leone.

🇻🇳 Vietnam Issues National Carbon Registry Circular

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment issued Circular 11/2026/TT-BNNMT, establishing the technical and legal framework for the National Registry System that will centrally manage all carbon credits and emission quotas.

🇹🇭 Thailand Approves Carbon Credits for Futures Trading

The Thai Cabinet and SEC approved amendments classifying carbon credits as 'goods' under the Derivatives Act, enabling cash-settled and physically delivered carbon futures on the Thailand Futures Exchange.

🇳🇬 Nigeria Activates National Carbon Market Framework and Registry

Nigeria formally activated its National Carbon Market Framework (NCMF) with a 'No-Objection' regulatory requirement for credit issuance under the National Council on Climate Change.

🇲🇼 Malawi and 🇲🇬 Madagascar Launch Carbon Market Frameworks

Malawi officially launched its National Carbon Market Framework with a designated DNA, while Madagascar formalized a mandatory national mitigation projects registry under Resolution No. 047/2026.

🇨🇴 Colombia: OECD Recommends Carbon Tax Hike and Offset Restrictions

The OECD published an Environmental Performance Review recommending Colombia urgently increase its carbon tax and tighten offset usage. A proposed 2026 bill would nearly double the rate (from COP 27,398 to COP 42,600) while cutting the offset limit from 50% to 40%.

🇲🇽 Mexico Advances National Carbon Market and Colima Sets 50% Domestic Sourcing Rule

Mexico confirmed its ETS is being finalized for full operationalization in 2026, alongside the launch of the Mexican Registry for the Green Transition (RMX). The state of Colima implemented a 50% domestic sourcing requirement for carbon offsets — a first in Latin America.

Export Restriction Tracker

Quick Hits

• VCS934: Mai Ndombe REDD+ achieves 'near-zero' deforestation levels; featured in positive community payout transparency report.

• VCS612: Kasigau Corridor REDD+ faces renewed human rights allegations even as proponent speaks at Africa's Green Economy Summit. Kenya's new KNCR mandates 25% revenue sharing.

• VCS902: Kariba REDD+ remains in trading deadlock — credits effectively 'frozen' despite historical volumes.

• GLD11440: PwC administrators invite expressions of interest to acquire collapsed KOKO Networks assets; 1.5M households left without clean fuel.

• VCS173: PowerGrid Corporation of India acquires 74% stake in Jaiprakash Power Ventures, the project proponent.

• VCS2250: Delta Blue Carbon in Pakistan receives formal Article 6 authorization — first for Pakistani mangrove credits.

• ACR457, ACR564: J.F. Lehman & Co acquires Tradewater — private equity moves into high-permanence ODS destruction.

• VCS3788: Verra issues first credits under digital MRV (dMRV) pilot — near-real-time data validation replaces manual audits.

• VCS1650: Keo Seima REDD+ celebrated as a global 'blueprint' for community-led crediting with $50M in revenue; three giant ibis chicks hatched thanks to REDD+ conservation funding.

• CAR1459: Indigo U.S. Project No.1 receives ICVCM CCP label for record-breaking 1.1M soil carbon credit issuance.

• PURO-507468: Biochar market benchmarks stabilized at $150/tCO2e according to new market report.

• ICAO TAB 2026 assessment cycle open (Feb 9 – Mar 9) for CORSIA Phase 2 (2027-2029) eligibility; Gold Standard unlocks 2M Phase 1 credits with new labels and first private insurance against double-counting.

This Week by the Numbers

1,268 project findings across 496 projects | 774 country policy findings across 140 countries | 7 countries with export restriction changes detected

Top project categories:

• Regulatory: 367 findings — CCP labeling, CORSIA eligibility, Article 6 authorizations

• Proponent Activity: 247 findings — Corporate acquisitions, earnings, strategic pivots

• Project Status: 194 findings — Registry transitions, monitoring updates, inactive declarations

• Future Issuance: 106 findings — Pre-issuance assessments, methodology transitions

• Integrity/Social: 76 findings — Court rulings, human rights investigations, failure rate disclosures

Top policy categories:

• VCM Regulatory: 246 findings — India CCTS launch, Mexico RMX, Nigeria NCMF activation

• CORSIA: 228 findings — ICAO TAB cycle, Gold Standard 2M credits, IATA March auction

• Article 6: 154 findings — Brazil-Singapore-Switzerland, Vietnam Circular, Rwanda framework

• ETS/Carbon Pricing: 137 findings — China expansion, EU ETS crisis, Virginia RGGI reentry, Thailand futures

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