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Brazil REDD Fraud Indictment, Kenya Registry Launch, Egypt Mandates 20% Offset, Biochar Aviation Deal, China Expands ETSnews
Feb 14–20, 2026 | 996 project findings across 441 projects + 789 country policy findings across 141 countries
VCM.fyi team
February 20, 2026
Top Stories This Week
1. Massive Fraud Indictment Rocks Brazilian REDD Project
Project: VCS1654 | Category: Integrity Concerns
Brazilian Federal Police have officially charged 31 individuals in connection with fraud and the laundering of illegal timber using the project area of the Fortaleza Ituxi REDD+ Project. This represents the most significant criminal prosecution of a registered carbon project in 2026 so far. The indictment validates long-running concerns about the project's operational integrity and serves as a stark warning to institutional buyers: registry status alone is insufficient due diligence for Amazonian REDD+ assets.
2. Kenya Launches National Carbon Registry as KOKO Networks Enters Liquidation
Kenya formally launched its National Carbon Registry (KNCR) on February 17, managed by NEMA under the Ministry of Environment, with a 40% benefit-sharing mandate. Simultaneously, PwC administrators for KOKO Networks have invited expressions of interest to acquire the collapsed company's assets. The juxtaposition is powerful: Kenya is building sovereign carbon market infrastructure while the country's highest-profile project developer enters formal insolvency. The KNCR's explicit citation of VCS1468's failures as a motivating case study signals a new era of host-country oversight.
3. Egypt Mandates 20% Carbon Offset for Financial Institutions — First African Compliance Demand
Project: GLD11557 | Category: Regulatory
Egypt's Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) issued Decision No. 36 of 2026, requiring all non-banking financial institutions with capital exceeding EGP 100 million to measure their carbon footprint and offset 20% using credits from the domestic voluntary market. This is the first mandatory offset requirement in Africa targeting the financial sector and creates significant captive demand for Egyptian renewable energy and waste-to-energy credits — including the Ras Ghareb Wind Farm (GLD11557).
4. Inox-Authum Consortium Acquires 600-MW Wind World India Portfolio
After years of insolvency, a consortium led by InoxGFL and Authum has finalized the acquisition of Wind World (India) Ltd's 600-MW portfolio for ₹2,800 crore. This signals a potential "revival" of over a dozen stalled or dormant carbon projects. However, traders should note that many remain under legacy methodologies that may require significant re-validation to meet 2026 high-integrity standards. This is also occurring as India advances its domestic Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) for mid-2026 launch — potentially redirecting future credits from international VCM to domestic compliance.
5. Exomad Green Secures 105,000-Tonne Biochar Offtake for Aviation
Projects: PURO-432524, PURO-292788 | Category: Price Signals / Major Deals
Exomad Green has signed a multi-year offtake deal with Senken for 105,000 tonnes of biochar removals dedicated to the aviation sector, with total partnership contract volumes nearing $30 million. This deal reinforces biochar's position as the preferred high-permanence removal for corporate buyers hedging against CORSIA and SAF mandates. Notably, this comes as Singapore launched a national SAF procurement trial with Google and Temasek, further validating aviation as the next structural demand driver.
6. Integrity Dissonance: Atmosfair Wins Court Battle While Nepal Biogas Stumbles
A tale of two community projects: Atmosfair successfully defended the physical existence of its Nigerian cookstove project in a German court this week. Conversely, a Kathmandu University study revealed that over 50% of digesters in the Nepal Biogas Support Program (GLD3114) are non-functional. Meanwhile, the Kasigau Corridor REDD+ project (VCS562) updated its monitoring profile to address systemic human rights allegations — a reminder that social safeguard risk now carries real market consequences.
Country Policy Monitor
789 findings scanned across 141 countries this week. Here are the most significant regulatory shifts.
🇨🇳 China Expands ETS to Six New Heavy Industry Sectors
China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) officially expanded mandatory carbon emissions reporting to six new sectors: petrochemicals, chemicals, flat glass, copper smelting, papermaking, and civil aviation. This data collection phase is a prerequisite for including these sectors in the national ETS starting 2027. The MEE also released 2026 operational guidance mandating emitters in these sectors to complete reporting and establish MRV systems.
Impact: Bullish — dramatically expands the scope of the world's largest ETS, creating future demand for CCER offset credits.
🇪🇬 Egypt Creates First African Mandatory Offset Demand
The Financial Regulatory Authority's Decision No. 36 of 2026 requires non-banking financial institutions with capital above EGP 100 million to offset 20% of their emissions using credits from the domestic voluntary market. This is the first such mandate in Africa and creates a captive buyer base for Egyptian wind, solar, and waste-to-energy projects.
Impact: Highly bullish for Egyptian project developers; creates structural domestic demand.
🇮🇩 Indonesia Targets Full Carbon Market by June 2026
Special Envoy Hashim Djojohadikusumo announced that Indonesia's national carbon market, governed by Presidential Regulation No. 110/2025, is targeted to be fully operational by June 2026. However, the carbon tax was confirmed as not a 2026 budget priority, creating a dual-track reality: the ETS accelerates while the tax stalls.
Impact: Bullish for project developers; compliance demand imminent, but tax-driven demand delayed.
Singapore and Rwanda have opened a new application round for Article 6.2 carbon credit projects under their bilateral Implementation Agreement. Rwanda also launched a streamlined national Article 6 framework to attract private investment and simplify credit issuance and transfer.
Impact: Bullish — one of the most investable Article 6 corridors globally; clear rules and sovereign backing.
🇯🇵 Japan Proposes JCM/J-Credit Price Corridor of ¥1,700–¥4,300
METI proposed a fiscal 2026 price corridor of ¥1,700–¥4,300 ($11–$27) per tonne for JCM and J-Credits. Japan also launched a methane reduction JCM project in Bangladesh, expanding its bilateral offset footprint.
Impact: Mixed — provides pricing transparency but confirms the low end of the global offset pricing spectrum for Asian credits.
🇸🇬 Singapore PM Signals Potential Carbon Tax Softening
Prime Minister Lawrence Wong stated that Singapore may temper future carbon tax increases if global climate action falters. The tax rose to S$45/tCO2e on January 1, 2026, but the previously projected trajectory to S$50–80 by 2030 is now uncertain. Counterbalancing this, Singapore launched a national SAF procurement trial with Google and Temasek.
Impact: Bearish for international offset demand from Singapore's compliance market; bullish for CORSIA-linked aviation credits.
🇿🇦 South Africa Carbon Tax Suspension Debate Continues
South Africa has entered Phase 2 of its carbon tax (R308/tCO2e, ~$17), but the Energy Minister is drafting a proposal to temporarily suspend the tax to offset rising electricity tariffs. National Treasury simultaneously moved to classify carbon credits as "unlisted securities" — institutionalizing the market even as the tax faces existential risk.
Impact: Bearish for short-term demand if suspension passes; bullish for domestic project developers under the securities framework.
Export Restriction Tracker
Country | Change | Details |
|---|---|---|
🇳🇵 Nepal | 5% domestic retention + 10% revenue tax | Carbon Trade Regulation 2082 mandates 5% credit retention for NDC; 10% tax on private sales |
🇻🇳 Vietnam | LoA requirement for forest credits | International sales of forest credits now require Ministry Letters of Authorization |
🇩🇪 Germany | ETS postponement considered | Chancellor suggested potential postponement of ETS to protect industry competitiveness |
🇦🇺 Australia | CBAM proposed | Carbon Leakage Review recommends border adjustment tariff for cement and clinker |
🇳🇿 New Zealand | Agricultural emissions pricing scrapped | Government confirmed cancellation of planned on-farm emissions pricing mandate |
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 20% domestic retention enforced | Law on Limiting GHG Emissions fully in force; dual-approval for international transfers |
🇨🇩 DR Congo | 96,600t annual quota + 10% state reserve | 2026 annual credit cap with 10% retained for discretionary state control |
🇿🇦 South Africa | Carbon tax suspension proposed | Energy Minister drafting proposal to pause carbon tax amid power cost crisis |
🇫🇮 Finland | Restrict international credits | Advisory recommendation to limit international credit use in favor of domestic removals |
🇮🇱 Israel | Paris Agreement withdrawal examined | Would invalidate national Article 6 frameworks if enacted |
Quick Hits
VCS672: INFAPRO project earns world-class BeZero 'A' rating, re-entering issuance phase after a decade-long pause.
VCS562: Kasigau Corridor REDD+ updates monitoring profile to address systemic human rights allegations.
VCS929: DeepMarkit announces verification and minting of up to 150,000 tokenized carbon credits from Quebec project.
VCS2250: Delta Blue Carbon project in Pakistan confirms $40M in revenue; legislative roadmap advances for carbon credit legal framework.
CAR1208: Issued 72,000 compliance credits this week; California prices see minor softening.
VCS1934: Officially declared permanently inactive following total dam destruction in flash flood.
VCS2398: Proponent Hefei Luyu remains sanctioned by Verra; no prospect for future issuance until 1.86M over-issuance debt is settled.
GLD12875: Zimbabwe grants first Article 6.2 authorizations to safe water projects through 2035.
GLD12317: Secured $6.5M in ADB financing to scale Indian cookstove operations.
ACR1205: S&P Global Platts to exclusively track ACR-methodology credits for industrial pollutants index.
VCS3002: Hiwi REDD+ positioned for significant future issuance following 340,000-credit forward purchase agreement.
ICAO TAB opens 2026 assessment cycle (Feb 9 – Mar 9) for Phase 2 CORSIA eligibility (2027-2029).
This Week by the Numbers
996 project findings across 441 projects | 789 country policy findings across 141 countries | 10 countries with export restriction changes detected
Top project categories:
Regulatory: 289 findings — Kenya registry launch, India CCTS, Zimbabwe Article 6
Proponent Activity: 220 findings — Corporate earnings, strategic pivots, insolvency proceedings
Future Issuance/Project Status: 257 findings — Fully retired project assessments, methodology transitions
Integrity/Social: 42 findings — Brazil fraud prosecution, Nepal digester failures, Kasigau human rights
Top policy categories:
VCM Regulatory: 249 findings — Egypt offset mandate, Indonesia market launch, Rwanda Article 6 framework
CORSIA: 225 findings — Phase 2 assessment cycle opens, aviation SAF demand rising
Article 6: 161 findings — Singapore-Rwanda call, Japan JCM expansion, Kenya bilateral agreements
ETS/Carbon Tax: 146 findings — China ETS expansion, South Africa suspension debate, Singapore softening
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